Retirement Projector

How This Calculator Works

This retirement projector shows what happens when you combine three powerful forces: your current savings, regular contributions, and compound growth over time.

Enter your current age, when you want to retire, what you've already saved, and how much you can contribute each month. The calculator projects your portfolio value at retirement and shows how much you could safely withdraw using the 4% rule.

What "Real Returns" Means

The expected return in this calculator is a real return—meaning it's already adjusted for inflation. When we say 5%, we mean 5% growth in actual purchasing power, not just dollars.

This matters because a dollar today won't buy what a dollar buys in 30 years. By using real returns, the final number you see represents today's purchasing power. If the calculator says you'll have $1,000,000, that means $1,000,000 in today's dollars—you'll be able to buy roughly what $1,000,000 buys right now.

If you've seen other calculators using 8-10% returns, they're likely using nominal (not inflation-adjusted) returns. Our 5% default is roughly equivalent to their 8% after accounting for typical 3% inflation.

The Power of Compound Growth

Compound growth is why starting early matters so much. Your money earns returns, and then those returns earn returns. Over decades, this creates exponential growth—the famous "hockey stick" curve you see in the chart.

Why Early Money Works Hardest

A dollar invested at 25 has 40 years to compound before you retire at 65. At 5% real returns, that single dollar becomes about $7. A dollar invested at 45 only has 20 years—it becomes about $2.65.

This isn't about guilt-tripping late starters. It's about understanding the math so you can make informed decisions. If you're starting late, you'll need to save more aggressively or extend your timeline. If you're starting early, even small contributions make a huge difference. See our guide on where to invest for practical next steps.

Reading the Chart

The chart shows your projected portfolio value over time. The curve starts slow and accelerates—that's compound growth in action. In the early years, most of your balance comes from contributions. In later years, investment returns dominate.

Notice how the curve gets steeper over time. This is why the last 10 years before retirement often add more to your portfolio than the first 20. The larger your balance, the more each year of growth contributes in absolute dollars.

A Simple Example

Start with $10,000 at age 25, add $500/month, earn 5% real returns:

• Age 35: ~$90,000 (you contributed $70,000, growth added $20,000)
• Age 45: ~$220,000 (you contributed $130,000, growth added $90,000)
• Age 55: ~$430,000 (you contributed $190,000, growth added $240,000)
• Age 65: ~$760,000 (you contributed $250,000, growth added $510,000)

The first $100,000 is the hardest. After that, your money starts working harder than you do.

Understanding Safe Withdrawal

The "safe withdrawal" amount shown is what you could take out monthly using the 4% rule. It's calculated as 4% of your portfolio divided by 12.

What "Safe" Actually Means

The 4% rule comes from the Trinity study, which tested withdrawal rates against historical market data. At 4%, your portfolio had a 95% chance of lasting 30 years across all historical periods tested—including the Great Depression and 1970s stagflation.

"Safe" doesn't mean guaranteed. It means historically reliable. The 5% of failures typically happened when someone retired right before a major crash (bad timing) and stuck rigidly to their withdrawal plan (no flexibility). Most retirees can improve their odds significantly by being willing to cut spending temporarily during severe downturns.

Monthly vs. Annual Framing

The 4% rule is usually quoted annually, but this calculator shows monthly withdrawals because most people think about expenses monthly. The math is the same: 4% annually equals 0.33% monthly.

A $1,000,000 portfolio supports $40,000/year or $3,333/month in withdrawals. Whether you take it monthly or annually doesn't affect the math much—it's just easier to compare to your monthly budget.

Calculator Limitations

This calculator is a planning tool, not a prediction. Here's what it assumes:

• Consistent returns: Real markets don't return 5% every year. Some years are up 30%, others down 20%. The projection shows average growth, not the bumpy reality.
• Consistent contributions: Life happens. You might save more in good years, less in bad ones. The calculator assumes steady monthly contributions.
• No taxes: Depending on your account types (401k, Roth, brokerage), you'll owe taxes on some withdrawals. This varies too much by situation to model simply.
• No Social Security: If you're planning for traditional retirement age, Social Security may supplement your portfolio. For early retirees, you'll need your portfolio to cover you until Social Security kicks in.

Despite these limitations, the calculator is useful for comparing scenarios and understanding how changes affect your outcome. Use it to answer "what if" questions, not to predict an exact future balance.

For projections that account for market volatility instead of assuming steady returns, the Fire Planner runs Monte Carlo simulation (1,000+ randomized return sequences) and historical backtesting against every period since 1871. It also models multiple income streams, individual assets with custom growth rates, and 6 stress test scenarios.

Works in Any Currency

Compound growth is currency-agnostic. Whether you're investing in USD, EUR, GBP, or INR, the math works the same. A 5% real return is a reasonable assumption globally for diversified equity portfolios. Use the currency selector in the navigation bar to switch between 8 supported currencies.