How Retirement Timelines Work
This calculator answers the question every aspiring early retiree asks: How many years until I can stop working?
The answer depends on three variables: how much you've already saved, how much you're adding each month, and what target you're trying to reach. Given those inputs, the calculator finds when your portfolio will hit your goal.
Why Savings Rate Dominates
Investment returns matter, but your savings rate matters more. Here's why: a higher savings rate does double duty. It increases how much you invest each month and decreases how much you need (because you're living on less).
Someone saving 10% of their income needs to replace 90% of that income in retirement. Someone saving 50% only needs to replace 50%. The second person needs a much smaller portfolio and is contributing much more to get there. That's why savings rate is the dominant variable.
Going from 10% to 20% savings rate cuts your timeline roughly in half. Going from 20% to 30% cuts it nearly in half again.
The Three Levers You Control
If your timeline feels too long, you have three ways to shorten it. Each has tradeoffs.
Lever 1: Increase Your Savings (Most Powerful)
Every extra dollar you save accelerates your timeline in two ways: more contributions now and (if it comes from reduced spending) a smaller target portfolio.
Lever 2: Reduce Your Target (Lower Expenses)
Your retirement target is based on your expected expenses. Find ways to spend less in retirement, and your target drops.
This doesn't mean deprivation. It might mean:
- Relocating somewhere with lower cost of living
- Paying off your mortgage before retiring
- Downsizing your home
- Getting clear on what actually makes you happy (often not expensive things)
Every $100/month you can cut from expected retirement expenses reduces your target by $30,000 (using the 25x rule).
Lever 3: Accept More Risk (Higher Returns)
Higher expected returns mean you need less time to reach your goal. But returns aren't something you fully control—you can only choose your asset allocation.
A 100% stock portfolio has historically returned more than a balanced portfolio, but with more volatility. You might get 7% real returns, or you might live through a decade of 2% returns. Increasing your return assumption makes your timeline shorter but less certain.
The savings rate lever is more reliable than the returns lever.
Savings Rate vs. Years to FIRE
Assuming 5% real returns and starting from zero, here's how savings rate affects your timeline:
| Savings Rate | Years to FIRE | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | ~51 years | Traditional retirement |
| 20% | ~37 years | Still a long career |
| 30% | ~28 years | Retire in your 50s |
| 40% | ~22 years | Retire in your late 40s |
| 50% | ~17 years | Retire in your early 40s |
| 60% | ~12.5 years | Aggressive FIRE |
| 70% | ~8.5 years | Extreme FIRE |
These assume starting from zero. If you already have savings, your timeline is shorter.
Portfolio Target vs. Monthly Income
This calculator lets you set your target two ways: as a portfolio value or as the monthly income you want to generate.
Portfolio Value Mode
Use this if you already know your FIRE number. Enter the total portfolio value you're targeting. The calculator shows when you'll reach it.
Monthly Income Mode
Use this if you think in terms of monthly expenses. Enter how much monthly income you want your portfolio to generate (using the 4% rule). The calculator converts this to a portfolio target and finds your timeline.
The two modes are connected by the 25x rule. If you want $4,000/month, that's $48,000/year, which requires a $1,200,000 portfolio.
Accelerating Your Timeline
If your calculated timeline feels too long, here are concrete strategies to shorten it:
Small Expense Cuts Compound
That $5 daily latte? It's not just $150/month—it's also $45,000 less you need in your portfolio. Multiply small expenses by 300 (25 years × 12 months) to see their true cost in retirement savings terms.
Earmark Income Increases for Savings
When you get a raise, commit to saving at least half of it before lifestyle inflation kicks in. Your future self will thank you, and you won't miss money you never got used to spending.
Geographic Arbitrage
Cost of living varies dramatically by location. If you're remote-work capable or flexible about where you retire, you can dramatically reduce your target. Living on $3,000/month is hard in San Francisco but comfortable in Portugal or Thailand.
The "One More Year" Trap
Once you're close to your number, avoid the temptation to keep working "just one more year" indefinitely. If you've hit your target, you've hit your target. The incremental safety of extra savings rarely justifies another year of work you don't want to do. Consider that the extra year is also one less year of the retirement you've been working toward.
What If the Timeline Feels Impossible?
If the calculator shows 40 years and you're already 35, don't despair. Full financial independence isn't the only goal worth pursuing.
Coast FIRE
Save aggressively now until you have enough that compound growth alone will carry you to a traditional retirement. Then you can work less stressful jobs, take sabbaticals, or reduce hours—you just need to cover current expenses, not save anything more.
Barista FIRE
Save enough that part-time work covers the gap between your portfolio's safe withdrawal and your expenses. Work 20 hours a week at something you enjoy instead of 50 hours at something you don't.
Lean FIRE
Radically reduce expenses and retire on less. This isn't for everyone, but some people genuinely prefer a simple life to a high-consumption one. A $600,000 portfolio supports $24,000/year in spending—tight, but possible in low-cost areas.
The Spectrum of Independence
Financial independence isn't binary. Every step toward it gives you more options:
- 1 month of expenses saved: You can handle a minor emergency
- 6 months saved: You can quit a toxic job and find a new one
- 2 years saved: You can take a sabbatical or try a risky career change
- 10 years saved: You can semi-retire or take extended breaks
- 25x expenses: Work becomes fully optional
Any progress is progress.
Frequently Asked Questions
It's an estimate based on consistent average returns. Real markets are volatile—you might hit your number earlier in a bull market or later after a crash. The longer your timeline, the more uncertainty. Use this as a planning target, recalculate annually, and don't be surprised if reality differs by a few years in either direction.
Start where you can and increase over time. Even 5-10% moves you forward. Focus on increasing income, reducing expenses, or both. Automate your savings so you don't have to think about it. Small increases each year compound over time. And remember: partial financial independence still gives you options.
High-interest debt (credit cards, personal loans)? Yes, pay it off before investing beyond your employer match. Low-interest debt (mortgage, low-rate student loans)? The math often favors investing while making minimum payments, since investment returns typically exceed the interest rate. But always capture any employer 401(k) match first—that's an instant 50-100% return.
Prioritize your retirement. Your kids have options (scholarships, loans, working, affordable schools). You can't borrow for retirement. That said, if you're on track for your FIRE goals, contributing to a 529 plan can be tax-efficient. Just don't sacrifice your financial independence for their college fund.
Yes—this is Barista FIRE. If part-time work covers some expenses, you need a smaller portfolio. Example: if part-time work covers $1,500/month of your $4,000/month expenses, you only need your portfolio to provide $2,500/month. That's a $750,000 portfolio instead of $1,200,000—potentially years earlier.
Add it to your current savings in the calculator to see the impact. A windfall accelerates your timeline significantly because it starts compounding immediately. The key is actually investing it rather than inflating your lifestyle. Many people receive windfalls and end up no closer to FIRE because the money disappeared into spending.