Retirement Savings Calculator

How This Calculator Works

This retirement projector shows what happens when you combine three powerful forces: your current savings, regular contributions, and compound growth over time.

Enter your current age, when you want to retire, what you've already saved, and how much you can contribute each month. The calculator projects your portfolio value at retirement and shows how much you could safely withdraw using the 4% rule.

What "Real Returns" Means

The expected return in this calculator is a real return—meaning it's already adjusted for inflation. When we say 5%, we mean 5% growth in actual purchasing power, not just dollars.

This matters because a dollar today won't buy what a dollar buys in 30 years. By using real returns, the final number you see represents today's purchasing power. If the calculator says you'll have $1,000,000, that means $1,000,000 in today's dollars—you'll be able to buy roughly what $1,000,000 buys right now.

If you've seen other calculators using 8-10% returns, they're likely using nominal (not inflation-adjusted) returns. Our 5% default is roughly equivalent to their 8% after accounting for typical 3% inflation.

The Power of Compound Growth

Compound growth is why starting early matters so much. Your money earns returns, and then those returns earn returns. Over decades, this creates exponential growth—the famous "hockey stick" curve you see in the chart.

Why Early Money Works Hardest

A dollar invested at 25 has 40 years to compound before you retire at 65. At 5% real returns, that single dollar becomes about $7. A dollar invested at 45 only has 20 years—it becomes about $2.65.

This isn't about guilt-tripping late starters. It's about understanding the math so you can make informed decisions. If you're starting late, you'll need to save more aggressively or extend your timeline. If you're starting early, even small contributions make a huge difference.

Reading the Chart

The chart shows your projected portfolio value over time. The curve starts slow and accelerates—that's compound growth in action. In the early years, most of your balance comes from contributions. In later years, investment returns dominate.

Notice how the curve gets steeper over time. This is why the last 10 years before retirement often add more to your portfolio than the first 20. The larger your balance, the more each year of growth contributes in absolute dollars.

A Simple Example

Start with $10,000 at age 25, add $500/month, earn 5% real returns:

• Age 35: ~$90,000 (you contributed $70,000, growth added $20,000)
• Age 45: ~$220,000 (you contributed $130,000, growth added $90,000)
• Age 55: ~$430,000 (you contributed $190,000, growth added $240,000)
• Age 65: ~$760,000 (you contributed $250,000, growth added $510,000)

The first $100,000 is the hardest. After that, your money starts working harder than you do.

Understanding Safe Withdrawal

The "safe withdrawal" amount shown is what you could take out monthly using the 4% rule. It's calculated as 4% of your portfolio divided by 12.

What "Safe" Actually Means

The 4% rule comes from the Trinity study, which tested withdrawal rates against historical market data. At 4%, your portfolio had a 95% chance of lasting 30 years across all historical periods tested—including the Great Depression and 1970s stagflation.

"Safe" doesn't mean guaranteed. It means historically reliable. The 5% of failures typically happened when someone retired right before a major crash (bad timing) and stuck rigidly to their withdrawal plan (no flexibility). Most retirees can improve their odds significantly by being willing to cut spending temporarily during severe downturns.

Monthly vs. Annual Framing

We show monthly withdrawal because that's how most people think about expenses. If you have $1,000,000 and withdraw 4% annually ($40,000), that's $3,333 per month before taxes.

Compare this to your expected expenses. If you need $4,000/month, you need a bigger portfolio. If $3,000/month covers you comfortably, you might be able to retire earlier than planned.

Choosing Your Expected Return

The return rate is the biggest assumption in any retirement projection. Small changes have massive effects over long time periods.

Conservative (4%)

Use this if you plan to hold a significant bond allocation (40%+), want extra safety margin, or are generally risk-averse. A 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has historically returned around 4-5% real.

Moderate (5-6%)

The sweet spot for most planners. Assumes a diversified portfolio that's mostly stocks, accounts for some fees and taxes, and builds in a small margin of error. This is our default.

Aggressive (7%+)

Only use this if you're 100% stocks, have low-cost index funds, and are comfortable with the volatility. The S&P 500 has returned about 7% real historically, but individual decades have varied wildly—from -3% to +13%.

Why We Don't Use 10%

You'll see 10% quoted as the "historical stock market return." That's the nominal return (not adjusted for inflation) and doesn't account for fees, taxes, or the fact that you're probably not 100% in stocks your whole life. Using 10% will give you unrealistically rosy projections.

What This Calculator Doesn't Account For

No calculator can predict the future. Here's what this one simplifies:

Sequence of Returns Risk

The calculator assumes smooth, consistent returns. Real markets are volatile. A 30% crash in your first year of retirement hurts much more than the same crash in year 20. This is called sequence of returns risk, and it's why having flexibility in early retirement matters.

Variable Spending

Most retirees don't spend the same amount every year. You might spend more in early retirement (travel, hobbies) and less later (slowing down). Healthcare costs often spike in later years. The 4% rule assumes constant inflation-adjusted spending, which is a simplification.

Other Income Sources

Social Security, pensions, rental income, part-time work—these all reduce how much you need from your portfolio. If you'll have $2,000/month from Social Security, you only need your portfolio to cover the gap between that and your expenses.

Taxes and Fees

The projection doesn't account for taxes on withdrawals (which depend on account types) or investment fees. If you're in high-fee funds (1%+ expense ratios), consider using a lower return rate. If you're in low-cost index funds (0.03-0.1%), the default 5% already accounts for minimal fees.